All posts filed under: en-Primeur

The upward creep: will price points replace Parker points?

Re-posted from the Liv-ex blog! See also this excellent overview of en-Primeur price increases this year so far.  Followers of this year’s En Primeur campaign will have noticed that release prices are creeping up again. What’s behind the upward creep? In a previous post we saw that release prices have been stuck at elevated levels since 2011: after the heady bull-market for the 2009 and 2010 vintages, prices did not revert to pre-boom levels but got stuck somewhere in between. You could say that the En Primeur system lost its innocence during the bubble years. Producers still remember a ballooning spread between En Primeur and London prices when the secondary market became red-hot. The fear of regret is a powerful motivator. No producer wants to run the risk of leaving money on the table again, especially when a vintage feels right. The Wine Society has described the vintage in 2015 as “unquestionably the finest for the past five years.” Producers are aiming higher in case the vintage booms. Apart from release price stickiness, there’s another reason …

Value & Risk in Fine Wine, Post 5: Age Curves

The fourth and final tool in this series is the Age Curve plot.  Age Curves show the development of market prices relative to initial release prices as wines age. Is a vintage an ageless benchmark or is it a duffer, over-priced at en-Primeur, waiting for a “second release”? That’s the sort of question Age Curves help us to answer. Lafite Rothschild It has been our habit to start with Lafite. And here we go again: the plot below displays the evolving price of the oldest vintage for which Liv-ex has a detailed price history (1982) compared against five other vintages that are often seen as benchmark years. (Note on graph: +/- 2 months because the first traded price after release can vary from one year to the next.) Compared to the 1982 vintage, the price levels of the more recent vintages initially developed at an accelerated pace. But what goes up (too quickly), must come down! The gains were in a vulnerable spot; a downturn promptly followed. The 2009-2010 peak led on to a sharp correction. We know this already, and …